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[–] Obrez [S] 2 points 1 point (+3|-2) ago 

Absolutely, in china they are black bagging pneumonia patients with bad social credit or excessive age, calling them dead and incinerating them as is procedure, military did pick ups every 5 hours as of last week. Nowhere near enough hospital beds; every week case size should be roughly tripling outside of effective quarantine; meaning in 50 days you would go from 1 case to thirty thousand then another 50 days you would have 30,000X30,000=900,000,000 the only thing preventing that from happening is the limit of the host population in size and distance so what this means is without quarantine in 100 days every person in new york city would have been exposed enough to be infected then reinfected by a new mutation, when those hospitals all fill up people will start breaking quarantine to get beds for their loved ones in other areas and it all starts over.

The real threat here is the rate of infection while a vaccine wont stop this thing it will slow it down enough that society wont collapse under the weight of the burdens on our population imposed by a pandemic of this magnitude. The R0 value is only so high because no humans on earth have any immunity to it, that's what being a "novel" virus means a previous exposure via a vaccine will slow it down by reducing the R0 and this should inhibit mutations drastically further slowing the virus down. It will become just another endemic flu.