Okay, this is going to be fucking long, so strap in.
Far from consistently being in God's good graces, the Israelites are constantly losing God's favor through their lack of faith and depraved behavior. They're often punished with plague, and on several occasions God threatens to wipe them out completely. There are numerous examples throughout the Old Testament, but here are some choice ones from the Torah.
Exodus 32: 7-10: And the Lord said to Moses, "Go down, for your people, whom you brought up out of the land of Egypt, have corrupted themselves. They have turned aside quickly out of the way that I commanded them. They have made for themselves a golden calf and have worshiped it and sacrificed to it and said, "These are your gods, O Israel, who brought you up out of the land of Egypt!'" And the Lord said to Moses, "I have seen this people, and behold, it is a stiff-necked people. Now therefore let me alone, that my wrath may burn hot against them and I may consume them, in order that I may make a great nation of you."
Exodus 33:1 and 3 - The Lord said to Moses, "Depart, go up from here, you and the people whom you have brought up out of the land of Egypt, to the land of which I swore to Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, saying, "To your offspring I will give it." Go up to a land flowing with milk and honey, but I will not go up among you, lest I consume you on the way, for you are a stiff-necked people."
Number 11:1-3: - And the people complained in the hearing of the Lord about their misfortunes, and when the Lord heard it, his anger was kindled, and the fire of the Lord burned among them and consumed some outlying parts of the camp. Then the people cried out to Moses, and Moses prayed to the Lord, and the fire died down. So the name of that place was called Taberah, because the fire of the Lord burned among them.
Numbers 14:11-12 And the Lord said to Moses, "How long will this people despise me? And how long will they not believe in me, in spite of all the signs that I have done among them? I will strike them with the pestilence and disinherit them, and I will make of you a nation greater and mightier then they."
Numbers 14:20-25 - Then the Lord said, "I have pardoned, according to your word. But truly, as I live, and as all the earth shall be filled with the glory of the Lord, none of the men who have seen my glory and my signs that I did in Egypt and in the wilderness, and yet have put me to the test these ten times and have not obeyed my voice, shall see the land that I swore to give to their fathers. And none of those who despised me shall see it."
Numbers 16:41-49 Then the Lord said, "But on the next day all the congregation of the people of Israel grumbled against Moses and against Aaron, saying, "You have killed the people of the Lord." And when the congregation had assembled against Moses and against Aaron, they turned toward the tent of meeting. And behold, the cloud covered it, and the glory of the Lord appeared. And Moses and Aaron came to the front of the tent of meeting, and the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, "Get away from the midst of this congregation, that I may consume them in a moment." And they fell upon their faces. And Moses said to Aaron, "Take your censer, and put fire on it from off the altar and lay incense on it and carry it quickly to the congregation and make atonement for them, for wrath had gone out from the Lord, the plague has begun." So Aaron took it as Moses said and ran into the midst of the assembly, and behold, the plague had already begun among the people. And he put on the incense and made atonement for the people. And he stood between the dead and the living, and the plague was stopped. Now those who died in the plague were 14,700, besides those who died in the affair of Korah. And Aaron returned to Moses at the entrance of the tent of meeting, and the plague was stopped.
The Israelites prove themselves to be almost comically disobedient, ungrateful, stubborn, and entitled. Constantly bitching and moaning about everything from the length of the journey, the lack of food and water (despite the fact that God always provides for them) to eventually the quality of the food they're given. [Exodus 15:23-24, Exodus 16:2-3, Exodus 17:1-3, Numbers 11:4-9, Numbers 14:1-4, Numbers 20:2-5, Numbers 21: 5-7] God makes food literally rain down from the sky in the middle of a desert on a daily basis and they complain about how it tastes. Not to mention they fall into idol worship not once, but twice! [Exodus 32, Numbers 25] They're such petulant assholes that an entire chapter, Deuteronomy 9, is literally nothing but Moses giving what amounts to a prolonged indictment of the Israelites, summarizing every bit of sinning and whining they've done after crossing the Red Sea. Moses, who, by the way, was forbidden by God from entering the promised land because he summoned water without God's orders, and the reason he did that was to make the Israelites stop whining at him for a little while.
After they settle in Israel, God's way of punishing them for losing faith and acting like degenerates is to allow them to be conquered by whatever flavor of the month empire was taking over the Middle East at the time: Babylonians, Assyrians, Romans, etc. Only freeing them when they redeem themselves... Only for them to start the cycle all over again. If modern day Jews, Ashkenazi, Sephardic or whatever else, can actually claim ancestry from the old Israelites, (Which is debatable, the Khazarian theory being what it is) Do you think that with their reason behavior, orchestrating the destruction of the Western world, spreading depravity and degeneracy and eroding culture, that they can claim to have God's favor? Just some food for thought.