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A candidate or party like Trump, that is shamed by mainstream, will often do better on voting day than in polls. 1) because people prefer to say something safe when you call their home or talk to them in the street 2) because polls are done non-stop, quick and cheap and the people doing them are often poorly paid and behind schedule. if they're in a hurry they just poll family and friends to wrap it up, and since the pollsters are most often big city college kids it can effect the result by a few percent 3) media is a big client for these polling companies and if the media is biased, polling companies may feel under pressure to provide data that fits the narrative. there is always a small group of voters that just want to be on the winning side, or a small group that might get apathetic and skip voting if they feel their candidate is losing. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's final numbers ended up a few percent higher than in polls (assuming no voting fraud for Clintons), and especially among blacks, hispanics and other blocks that don't want to admit they like him.
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[–] ouiouoiuoiu ago
A candidate or party like Trump, that is shamed by mainstream, will often do better on voting day than in polls. 1) because people prefer to say something safe when you call their home or talk to them in the street 2) because polls are done non-stop, quick and cheap and the people doing them are often poorly paid and behind schedule. if they're in a hurry they just poll family and friends to wrap it up, and since the pollsters are most often big city college kids it can effect the result by a few percent 3) media is a big client for these polling companies and if the media is biased, polling companies may feel under pressure to provide data that fits the narrative. there is always a small group of voters that just want to be on the winning side, or a small group that might get apathetic and skip voting if they feel their candidate is losing. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's final numbers ended up a few percent higher than in polls (assuming no voting fraud for Clintons), and especially among blacks, hispanics and other blocks that don't want to admit they like him.