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Thank you for response. Your guess that I'm a student is wrong, though I do have lots of students ranging from callow first-year undergrads upwards. Very few of them would have made the mistake that you made.
I think you're being disingenuous when you say the pound has "fallen slightly" when it's one of the biggest falls in living memory. Certainly there has been some profit-taking, but it's likely that the underlying trend for sterling is still down. Your remark about algorithmic trading is partly right: there are many "trend-following" trading algorithms, but these algorithms have been falling as a proportion of all algorithmic trading over the last decade or so as more sophisticated models have been introduced. On balance it's a moot point whether algorithmic trading has amplified or reduced the impact of the Brexit news in the FX markets. A weak point in your citing the impact of computer-driven trading is that it fails to appreciate how many of the more modern approaches work: they only act on the basis of formally structured information of particular kinds (e.g. specific economic figures), so haven't yet had a chance to react to Brexit, as we don't have any new economic data of the right kind to trigger them. This will change in the months ahead.
It is actually exactly because of your "experiences with rising rent, over-crowded public transport, inability to get a GP appointment" and so on that your decision process is invalid. You, like many other less reflective people, confuse your particular experience with that of the country as a whole. Similarly, many less reflective people can't effectively think in terms of "counterfactuals" ("what would have happened if..."). These are common problems amongst what we can, for short, call "stupid people". Stupid people can't think clearly, and make decisions on the basis of a whole range of unhelpful behaviours (what we sometimes call "cognitive biases"). This is what you did when you cast your stupid vote: you looked at the world through the lens of your own limited view, rather than taking the broader view.
Don't get me wrong: academic economists suffer from exactly the same cognitive biases and tendencies to e.g. focus on anecdotal data rather than carefully compiled statistics. I have to work really hard to think abstractly, and so do all my colleagues. Most of being an "intellectual" or a "social liberal" or whatever is learning to think clearly and without bias. This is difficult, which is why most people don't do it. It's certainly why many many pro-Brexit voters cast their stupid votes.
It is possible to stop being stupid, but it takes tremendous work. I have the good fortune to work for an institution that only accepts very high quality students, and even then it's a real struggle to get most of them to think clearly and critically.
I imagine you think I'm "arrogant" for what I'm saying here. Actually, you are the arrogant one: you imagined that your ability to make decisions about an incredibly complex economic and social issue was better than that of all those hundreds of experts from all those different industries and academies. Would you think you were better than a surgeon who's trained for years? Would you even think you know more about plumbing than one of those cheap, well-trained Polish plumbers you worry about? Then why on earth did you think you knew more about economic and social issues than those highly educated, intelligent, hard-working people who told you over and over what the risks were? Certainly there are some people whose PhDs have contributed nothing to their minds (I'm thinking of one particular ex-colleague!), but generally having higher qualifications and having spent more time studying is a good indicator that these people know what they're talking about. When smart people speak, it's stupid to ignore them.
I see. You're not a naive student, you're an arrogant professor and everyone is stupider than you. Are you bitter that I have the same vote as you? If you are genuinely a professor, make this a teaching experience for your students. Considering the experiences, opinions and priorities of others will expand their minds.
I'd love to have an intelligent discussion but, as you have deemed my experiences and decisions invalid and me stupid, what's the point?
Hi. I saved this thread when it appeared yesterday because I couldn't believe how vile the dude is, even if he's correct, which is inconclusive. But every time the argument leans toward conjecture, which is a lot since we're talking about the future, he says if you don't arrive at the same conclusion as he does, you're an idiot. Then he claims to be some kind of educator. Now I understand why half of you wanted to stay. You were afraid of some dude like this, who is going to lose a lot, and will argue based on the impact to him, personally. I think that's "using your powers" for evil. Like "fuck y'all, I don't want my retirement fund to take a hit, so you can just remain slaves for now."
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[–] TelescopiumHerscheli ago
Thank you for response. Your guess that I'm a student is wrong, though I do have lots of students ranging from callow first-year undergrads upwards. Very few of them would have made the mistake that you made.
I think you're being disingenuous when you say the pound has "fallen slightly" when it's one of the biggest falls in living memory. Certainly there has been some profit-taking, but it's likely that the underlying trend for sterling is still down. Your remark about algorithmic trading is partly right: there are many "trend-following" trading algorithms, but these algorithms have been falling as a proportion of all algorithmic trading over the last decade or so as more sophisticated models have been introduced. On balance it's a moot point whether algorithmic trading has amplified or reduced the impact of the Brexit news in the FX markets. A weak point in your citing the impact of computer-driven trading is that it fails to appreciate how many of the more modern approaches work: they only act on the basis of formally structured information of particular kinds (e.g. specific economic figures), so haven't yet had a chance to react to Brexit, as we don't have any new economic data of the right kind to trigger them. This will change in the months ahead.
It is actually exactly because of your "experiences with rising rent, over-crowded public transport, inability to get a GP appointment" and so on that your decision process is invalid. You, like many other less reflective people, confuse your particular experience with that of the country as a whole. Similarly, many less reflective people can't effectively think in terms of "counterfactuals" ("what would have happened if..."). These are common problems amongst what we can, for short, call "stupid people". Stupid people can't think clearly, and make decisions on the basis of a whole range of unhelpful behaviours (what we sometimes call "cognitive biases"). This is what you did when you cast your stupid vote: you looked at the world through the lens of your own limited view, rather than taking the broader view.
Don't get me wrong: academic economists suffer from exactly the same cognitive biases and tendencies to e.g. focus on anecdotal data rather than carefully compiled statistics. I have to work really hard to think abstractly, and so do all my colleagues. Most of being an "intellectual" or a "social liberal" or whatever is learning to think clearly and without bias. This is difficult, which is why most people don't do it. It's certainly why many many pro-Brexit voters cast their stupid votes.
It is possible to stop being stupid, but it takes tremendous work. I have the good fortune to work for an institution that only accepts very high quality students, and even then it's a real struggle to get most of them to think clearly and critically.
I imagine you think I'm "arrogant" for what I'm saying here. Actually, you are the arrogant one: you imagined that your ability to make decisions about an incredibly complex economic and social issue was better than that of all those hundreds of experts from all those different industries and academies. Would you think you were better than a surgeon who's trained for years? Would you even think you know more about plumbing than one of those cheap, well-trained Polish plumbers you worry about? Then why on earth did you think you knew more about economic and social issues than those highly educated, intelligent, hard-working people who told you over and over what the risks were? Certainly there are some people whose PhDs have contributed nothing to their minds (I'm thinking of one particular ex-colleague!), but generally having higher qualifications and having spent more time studying is a good indicator that these people know what they're talking about. When smart people speak, it's stupid to ignore them.
[–] flat_hedgehog 0 points 1 point 1 point (+1|-0) ago
I see. You're not a naive student, you're an arrogant professor and everyone is stupider than you. Are you bitter that I have the same vote as you? If you are genuinely a professor, make this a teaching experience for your students. Considering the experiences, opinions and priorities of others will expand their minds.
I'd love to have an intelligent discussion but, as you have deemed my experiences and decisions invalid and me stupid, what's the point?
[–] oftotc ago
Hi. I saved this thread when it appeared yesterday because I couldn't believe how vile the dude is, even if he's correct, which is inconclusive. But every time the argument leans toward conjecture, which is a lot since we're talking about the future, he says if you don't arrive at the same conclusion as he does, you're an idiot. Then he claims to be some kind of educator. Now I understand why half of you wanted to stay. You were afraid of some dude like this, who is going to lose a lot, and will argue based on the impact to him, personally. I think that's "using your powers" for evil. Like "fuck y'all, I don't want my retirement fund to take a hit, so you can just remain slaves for now."