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[–] RevanProdigalKnight 1 points 22 points (+23|-1) ago 

This article is largely fear mongering.

We're a long way off from true AI. Most modern "AI" systems are just a whole bunch of fancy coding around sophisticated sensors, which also check against terabytes of pre-recorded data to make sure the sensors aren't malfunctioning. Some of the more advanced AIs can process audio in realtime and synthesize audio output for responses, but that's all the further we've actually gotten.

Recent advancements in the research and development of Artificial Neural Networks is the most promising sign for AI that I've seen, but one of the problems with an ANN is that due to its similarity to the human brain, it does process things more slowly than hard coded functions and parameters, and due to its complexity, it's extremely difficult or takes a very long time to write an ANN that can do anything complex. The biggest example of this I've seen recently is a robot arm that was taught to "grab" various items that was powered by an ANN, and it took several days for the robot arm to grasp even this simple concept.

In my humble opinion, until somebody writes an AI that can write code for a more advanced AI, we're safe. And even then, there's no guarantee that robotics will have caught up to AI technology.

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[–] MrPim 0 points 4 points (+4|-0) ago 

And even then, there's no guarantee that robotics will have caught up to AI technology.

idk. Some of the better robots I've seen are pretty impressive. I mean some of the Boston Dynamics stuff is pretty bad ass. They only seem to need better batteries. And then when we get the AI you just plop it into a BigDog or whatever they've got going then, and you have one hell of a robot.
idk, I'm not an expert in either or anything, but from a layman perspective Boston Dynamics is impressive.

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[–] rwbj 0 points 8 points (+8|-0) ago 

Exactly. This is already the future. Imagine the meshing of Boston Dynamic's Atlas along with Watson and the rapid improvements we're seeing in computer vision. You'd have a fully dynamic environment aware machine that in the near future will be stronger, faster, and capable of accessing and applying the collective knowledge of all of humanity from any field.

It's not fear mongering to realize this trajectory is leading us pretty much straight down the path towards the end of mass employment as the basis for an economic model. The timing of this just as we also begin the process of putting our feet on a different planet for the first time in the history of humanity is inspiring end encouraging.

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[–] Amarok 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago  (edited ago)

The shortcut you're overlooking is combining big data with the neural network style 'learning' techniques applied at all nodes on any given task network. Take self-driving cars as an example - that network will improve at a geometric pace if every single one of millions of self driving cars are linked together as a whole. Everything each individual car 'learns' is shared with all of the others on the network, making it more like one self driving car that has a couple hundred million active nodes. Structuring tasks like this is pretty complicated stuff but not complicated enough that it won't become common, and in the long run, even easy. Expect the same from robotic cashiers the world over, or cooking robots, or shipping and packaging robots - it'll work for most kinds of narrow AI task sets.

The real question is, how much can this shared experience really push the quality of the AI? The jury is still out on that one. All they need to do is hit basic untrained-worker level of proficiency to displace the majority of humans in those jobs, and that seems an easy low hanging fruit that most researchers expect to attain within a decade or two.

We don't need to have computers that do actual thinking or self improvement to reach major economic disruption. Neural networks aren't 'intelligent' or capable of reason - all they do is record and play back. They match sets of previously recorded and validated responses to appropriate sets of stimuli. It's just a super-fancy VCR. The closest analog to what they do in humans is unconscious/instinctive reflex and muscle memory. Touch a hot stove, yank your hand away. Toss and catch a ball a few thousand times, you get great at it without thinking about it. Taste thousands of varieties of wine, develop sophisticated flavor recognition. That's the level of technology we're dealing with for this early automation phase. It's less about thought, more about building up an experiential database and 'muscle memory.'

Machines capable of reason, emotion, goal-driven behavior, and creative thinking are still a long way off into the future. They'll depend on neural networks just like we do, but just like with us, it'll be one small component of their overall minds. The good news is that it means this kind of automation is 'safe' AI to play with. It isn't going to 'wake up' and become Skynet. Self awareness is more than a database of past experiences.

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[–] binky 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago 

Some of the more advanced AIs can process audio in realtime and synthesize audio output for responses

Don't you realize how much closer this brings us to general AI?

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[–] RevanProdigalKnight 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago 

Don't you realize how much more complicated video is than audio?

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[–] rwbj 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago 

No it wasn't, not at all.

One thing the article really hot is that the vast majority of people have absolutely no clue how rapidly AI is advancing at the moment. Deep learning systems are doing far more than you're aware of. Things like Watson is a pure deep learning system which most people entirely failed to grasp the relevance of. IBM beating a human at chess was regarded with more fanfair largely because I think most people simply saw Watson and broke it down as a computer doing database queries. Wow, welcome to 1970, right? Accurately applying non constrained parsed natural language is a monumental moment in AI. Jeopardy in particular was an excellent test as the show makes extensive use of word play such as innuendo and indirect hints. Just figuring out what's being asked is a task in itself.

Consequently Watson has been able to apply this ability to begin consuming information in a variety of other fields. For instance one field IBM took it to was medicine. It's now already outperforming human doctors at diagnosis of some forms of cancer and being trialed in some of the preeminent cancer institutions in the world such as MD Anderson. It's nothing all that more complex than what it did on Jeopardy. It takes enormous volumes of information and accurately applies them in a given scenario. It just seems more impressive as the relevance becomes more clear.

Another recent accomplishment came from Google. They developed a system that can play Atari games on a super-human level. Not exactly an accomplishment, right? In this case the only input the AI is receiving is the pixels from the games and its score. The rules, the controls, etc - none of these are told to it. It has to effectively teach itself how to play every single game it plays, and it's been unbelievably successful in doing so. There have also been enormous breakthroughs in computer vision and countless other fields as well which as we start meshing these with robotic systems.. well..

We're already seeing some of the major impacts of AI but they're not in your face yet. We'll likely see the first in-your-face example within 5 years. Completely automated vehicles will take a huge chunk out of the labor market. Uber's CEO has already stated he would like to buy Tesla's entire first run of pure automated vehicles. That's estimated at half a million vehicles in 2020. DHL has already stated they're investigating and plan on being the front lines of self driving vehicles. There will technology on a day to day basis like nothing ever before seen, and millions of jobs will be gone - all in the blink of an eye.

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[–] RevanProdigalKnight 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago 

Watson is impressive, yes, but it's taken years for it to become as proficient as it has, due to the nature of deep learning. Also, due to the sheer amount of data that Watson has to be able to access, it's not practical to do anything past asking questions and receiving answers. I also seem to remember that it still only processes text input, and isn't capable of processing speech, but I could be mistaken about that.

Another recent accomplishment came from Google. They developed a system that can play Atari games on a super-human level. Not exactly an accomplishment, right? In this case the only input the AI is receiving is the pixels from the games and its score.

Wow, so we're finally able to process 320x240@30fps in realtime! So many pixels! Except that was fed straight to their AI and it didn't have to visually interpret it through a camera, if I remember correctly. Oh, and it took the AI 600 tries to find the optimal strategy for Bricks.

So very impressive.

One final note - real AI will not be able to take off until quantum processors are mainstream and not just an expensive science project in laboratories.

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[–] chelfyn 0 points 6 points (+6|-0) ago 

I quick POV excercise regarding AI. Imagine 200 years ago, a farmer pointing up into the sky "we'll never fly like the birds". Now imagine a passenger on a 747, pointing out the window on take off - "we'll never fly like the birds". Apart from a small amount of RC craft, they may well be right. We don't fly like birds, we fly in aircraft.

In the same way that planes don't fly like birds, but exceed birds capabilities in the areas that matter to us. Machines may never think like humans, but they think better then humans in different ways, and in the ways that matter to us. My pocket calculator from 35 years ago was better at arithmetic than 99.9% of humans on the planet. It can't think like a human, but was better at the "thinking"task required.

"thinking like a human"is the biggest red-herring in AI, both in actuality and conceptually. Imagine making a passenger plane that can flap it's wings and cartwheel through the air with the grace of a bird - it would be pointless.

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[–] tame 0 points 3 points (+3|-0) ago  (edited ago)

"Asking whether a computer can think is like asking whether a submarine can swim." - Dijkstra

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[–] rwbj 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

It's not only a red herring. I have 0 doubt that even if we developed an AI system that was capable of every single thing a human was and then far more modeled after biological processes so much as possible, you'd have people slowly equate 'thinking like a human' to 'being born a biological human.' Then the AIs could have fun arguments over beer:

  • "Ya ain't a human. Yer only doing what them 1s and 0s yer heads telling ya to."

  • "Well you sir are only doing what the electrical currents among the neurons in your head are telling you to do!"

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[–] Possible 0 points 6 points (+6|-0) ago 

Half of the arguments proposed in this article (and many of the examples) are all presented in a video which is now over a year old.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

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[–] WhiteRonin 0 points 3 points (+3|-0) ago 

Imagine where we will be in another 40 years! Going from a simple pong game to computers like Watson. Now consider pong = Watson the future Watson = ??? (Anyway you look at at, some scary freakishly cool stuff!)

As for the article: "But Malthus failed to anticipate the drastic technological changes - from the steam-powered loom to the combine harvester"

This article is based on a premise humans will never leave this planet. If we were able toove masses of people off this planet (or go with birth being done off this planet) the possibilities become endless for jobs and personal space.

Technology has been advancing but in almost 50 years, moving people to a foreign body seems to have gone horizontal rather than vertical.

Will our species spread across the galaxy or just spread to every last space on this planet?

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[–] LetItBurn 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

Khan!!!!

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[–] RedditIsPropaganda23 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago  (edited ago)

Let's hope that AI doesn't doesn't literally wipe us out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcdVC4e6EV4&t=3m2s

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[–] Tisias 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago 

Who's up for deicide?

[–] [deleted] 2 points 0 points (+2|-2) ago  (edited ago)

[Deleted]

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[–] tame 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

Hah, gaaay.

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