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[–] AdHomonym ago 

But it doesn't, really.. we have the folks in the bottom quartile at 60% percieved competence... those people are all over the place, some of them think they are awesome... some of them know they suck. On average, the think they are 10% better than average.

The way it is understood by some is that incompetence breeds confidence, but the reality is that inexperienced people who are also confident haven't had reality adjust their perception... but nothing about inexperience makes people think they are good at something in and of itself. That idea is really tempting, and it feels good to believe, but it isn't really warranted given the data. It's the just world fallacy.

Also, the effect is significantly diminished when the complexity of the task is increased.

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[–] water_and_shade ago 

1) Sure, the variance isn't shown. Error bars are important, and large error bars would support your claim, but given that all we know are these averages, the average for less intelligent people is clearly above their actual skill, and the average for more intelligent people is clearly below their actual skill.

2) I'm not saying this is causation; clearly studies like this only demonstrate correlation.

3) That would be interesting to read about :)

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[–] AdHomonym ago 

I would dig out the rest of the data, but i'm a lil too busy to put it together. So, I can't back it up...

Just a warning to people to be wary... Every journalist fucks this up! It's super easy to misinterpret, because it fits our conception of know-it-alls... but there are just as many know-nothings who are smart enough to keep their mouth shut.

It really is, its on the blog I linked to. It makes sense too. No one labors under the illusion of being good at baseball when they are out on the feild and failing.