The Trump campaign sees an enthusiasm and base intensity gap favorable for the president.
While an imperfect predictive measure, President Trump defeated rival Joe Biden in 2020 primary vote turnout for key swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, even after Biden had essentially sewn up his Democratic Party's nomination.
Citing the strong turnout for Trump in the primaries, his campaign sees an enthusiasm and base intensity gap favorable for the president, as the Democratic Party has been locked in fierce internecine battle dating back to at least the 2016 presidential race.
In Pennsylvania, Trump earned 934,524 votes this year, compared to 914,904 for Biden, according to the Associated Press. In Ohio, Biden earned 623,186 votes compared to a reported 682,843 for Trump.
In the supposed "blue wall" state of Wisconsin, Biden earned 581,611 votes compared to 616,705 for Trump, and though Democratic rival candidate Bernie Sanders earned 293,652 votes, those Sanders voters were not reliably loyal to the Democratic Party, as shown by 2016.
"In 2016, about 216,000 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters backed the Vermont senator in the spring and Trump in the fall, according to an analysis of exit polling — well over twice the president's total margin of victory in those states, which were critical to his electoral vote win in the face of a decisive popular vote loss," reported NBC's Shannon Pettypiece.
In Florida, Trump won 1.163 million votes, compared to Biden's 1.077 million, although 397,091 Floridians voted for Sanders and 255,764 voted for other Democrats. Yet an ABC News/Washington Post poll found 15% of Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2020 supporters will vote for President Donald Trump's reelection, and 80% of Sanders' supporters said they would back Biden over Trump, leading to questions of whether many Sanders primary voters would stay home for the general election.