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[–] bulksalty ago 

It wouldn't shock me if the African Americans (who tend to be quite religious and surprisingly socially conservative in many ways) joined with the evangelical/culture warrior vote (all three about 13% of voters) to form a populist, socially conservative party. Replacing most of the Republican vote, but also a healthy portion (20-25%) of the Democratic vote. If they pull Latinos, Catholics that's right in the same neighborhood as either major party, and the three big groups are pretty upset at the major parties at the moment.