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[–] septenary [S] ago 

Just like the transmission started with just a few people, we should expect to see another ramp up on loosening of restrictions just like there was when the virus was first introduced to the population. A couple percent of the population having immunity would not be enough to make much of a difference in terms of how the virus spreads, so we would see a return to exponential/parabolic spread.

Looking at it on a chart, it would appear like the vertical part of a 2nd step in a set of stairs forming. And if there was still so far to go - herd immunity requires at least 70% infected - that 2nd step could be many times larger than the first one. But we're not seeing that. Anywhere.

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[–] heygeorge ago 

Restrictions haven’t loosened all at once where there were major outbreaks. And many people have changed their behaviors. So your interpretation of what the infection spike should look like is bogus, especially as we are learning more about the infection rate and how the virus actually seems to spread (such as the apparently low instance of contaminated surfaces spreading infection)

Have you seen this? I’ve been meaning to read the actual study to see if it’s meaningful, but life gets in the way.

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/06/23/Less-than-half-a-population-needs-COVID-19-infection-for-herd-immunity-study-says/5531592933827/

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[–] septenary [S] ago 

Ultimately you can believe what you want, but you should understand that there are no medical and/or mathematical experts who predicted some scenario where lockdown measures were going to be good enough to achieve containment. That was considered off the table since January.

A "best case" scenario for COVID has been an extended/stretched out - but still even/predictable - curve, where the number of hospitalizations remain less than the number of hospital beds available.

Please note again that the notion of achieving and then potentially losing containment again of the virus has not been in even the dreams of experts past 1/2020.