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[–] heygeorge ago
Ha, perhaps. But you are trying hard, and I appreciate that. I have also played Sudoku a couple times, but don’t find it a particularly interesting pursuit.
Your argument leaves out time and the raw number of actively infected/communicable persons. Over the time of the lockdowns, people ‘went through’ the virus, maybe passing it along to close contacts, but a great number of transmission chains came to a conclusion. So if very few people have it, because the spread was stopped, then...
How are they going to spread an infection they do not have?
[–] septenary [S] ago
Just like the transmission started with just a few people, we should expect to see another ramp up on loosening of restrictions just like there was when the virus was first introduced to the population. A couple percent of the population having immunity would not be enough to make much of a difference in terms of how the virus spreads, so we would see a return to exponential/parabolic spread.
Looking at it on a chart, it would appear like the vertical part of a 2nd step in a set of stairs forming. And if there was still so far to go - herd immunity requires at least 70% infected - that 2nd step could be many times larger than the first one. But we're not seeing that. Anywhere.
[–] heygeorge ago
Restrictions haven’t loosened all at once where there were major outbreaks. And many people have changed their behaviors. So your interpretation of what the infection spike should look like is bogus, especially as we are learning more about the infection rate and how the virus actually seems to spread (such as the apparently low instance of contaminated surfaces spreading infection)
Have you seen this? I’ve been meaning to read the actual study to see if it’s meaningful, but life gets in the way.
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/06/23/Less-than-half-a-population-needs-COVID-19-infection-for-herd-immunity-study-says/5531592933827/