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[–] Kurplow 0 points 1 point (+1|-0) ago  (edited ago)

You appear to be under the assumption the Senate turns blue tomorrow. I don't expect it to, but 538 is giving odds very close to a coin flip.

Let me restructure my position: If the dems don't take the Senate, they would be better off (in the long term) to spend the 2016-2020 term building resistance at the state level, and in Congress--because if they don't, when they eventually do lose the White House, they will have less of a hold on power even than they will if they lose now--and without the Senate they won't have accomplished anything anyway. It's not hard to imagine what the GOP would do in 2020 with the White House and the Senate (you're already imagining the democrats doing it)--only, the GOP would have the majority of State Legislatures and gubernatorial seats and perhaps multiple open Supreme Court seats.

I still have a lingering sense that there is nothing the dems could accomplish in those two years that would truly make it any harder for GOPers to reassert control post 2020 (because of how many other institutions they control) if the dems allow their power base to corrode further, even if they do take the senate, but I'll cede the ground.

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[–] DickHertz ago 

Why is winning the Whitehouse mutually exclusive with those other activities? Even if the Senate does not turn blue tomorrow holding the Whitehouse maintains status-quo of do nothing and preserves Obama initiatives. Were the republicans to hold both houses and the Whitehouse they could do real damage to Democratic positions left unchecked.

The Senate need not actually turn blue - purple gets it as well since VP is blue. As far as multiple Supreme Court seats Justices can resign at any time including the first two years of Hillary's term and sometimes they do make strategic resignations but of course if dems don't take Senate it's a moot point.

What makes you think GOP will win in 2020 against incumbent? Obama was very unpopular and still got two terms. This year's Republican campaign was a shit show resulting in a nominee that nobody established in the party wants anything to do with. If they don't get their shit together they'll likely go down again.

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[–] Kurplow 0 points 1 point (+1|-0) ago 

Why is winning the Whitehouse mutually exclusive with those other activities?

What happens to the share of Congress held by a party while that party occupies the White House? Whichever party has the Presidency is seen as being "in power" and they assume the blame and credit for essentially everything except in the minds of extreme partisans. I don't expect the next four years to be all roses and sunshine, regardless of who is "in power;" I do expect Congress to move away from that party's control, though, because it almost always does.

Were the republicans to hold both houses and the Whitehouse they could do real damage to Democratic positions left unchecked.

Okay, but that's even more true in 2020 post a scandalous and unproductive Clinton Presidency.

What makes you think GOP will win in 2020 against incumbent?

The most unpopular candidate to win, ever, would be that incumbent. Also, and again, I don't think the President is going to enjoy the next four years very much; and if times are rough, as I'm expecting, whoever is perceived to be "in power" will not be winning the love of the people. What do you think Republicans would say leading up to 2020, about the 12 years of "Democrats in power" with nothing to show for it but financial crises and war? That wouldn't be an easy election for anyone to win, let alone her.

This year's Republican campaign was a shit show resulting in a nominee that nobody established in the party wants anything to do with. If they don't get their shit together they'll likely go down again.

Okay, but--and for the same reasons--all they have to do is get their shit together a little bit.