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[–] Flying_Mushroom 0 points 12 points (+12|-0) ago 

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Saturday the shelling had taken place under "the rules of engagement against forces that represented a threat in Azaz and the surrounding area".

So how am I supposed to understand it?

All I get from this is that Turkey is shelling its neighboring country and its armies that fight against ISIS. WTF is happening there and how is this even allowed under international law?

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[–] dbag2070 0 points 17 points (+17|-0) ago 

US Allies. international law doesn't apply.

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[–] rob_white 0 points 14 points (+14|-0) ago  (edited ago)

WTF is happening there

It's complicated and needs more than a few paragraphs but I will outline the basics of why they are doing this. Not sure how much you know but we have two sides.

  1. Assad & Russia, with Iran

  2. Turkey, Saudi and the US.

Ignore ISIS for now, they are mainly a great excuse for both parties at this stage, ISIS are a proxy army, funded and armed by Saudi, Turkey and the US, but one that is down on strength compared to what it was. It's complicated but just accept ISIS really are a minor player now despise the fear mongering that happens in the US and the EU.

Team 2 is losing influence in the Middle East to team 1, Assad is a friend of Russia and Russia has an important port in Syria called Tartus, which it does not want to lose. Of course if Assad is replaced with a Pro-Turkey, Pro-US puppet they would lose this base.

Ironically this whole issue all came about because the US was trying to remove Iranian and Russian influence in Syria, while it started quite well for the US and friends with ISIS and other anti Assad groups making major gains, it has, with the direct involvement of Russia, backfired quite badly now. It forced Russia to get involved directly or team 1 would lose, I highly suspect the US and friends expected no direct involvement of Russia and were wrong.

The largest remaining anti Assad forces left in Syria are holed up in Aleepo, Syria's largest city which they still control. What the Pro Assad forces are currently doing is encircling Aleepo with the help of Russia air support, encircling the city means there is no escape for the anit Assad forces over the border to Turkey. To complete that encirclement, the pro Assad forces needs to come fairly close to the Turkish border.

Of course Turkey are just claiming it's self defense as you would expect, despite the pro Assad forces not being in Turkey, it's just an excuse to say they feel threatened. Also they want to prompt a response, so they can claim they are attacked and use it as an excuse so Turkey can invade Syria directly, they are already massing troops on the border for this. Joining them would be a small Saudi force as well.

I don't want to sound conspiratorial in anyway but watch for Turkey pulling a false flag saying somewhere on the Turkish side of the border was shelled to give them a pretext to invade Syria, this could then involved NATO as well. Things are getting very desperate for Team 2 currently as they are about to lose.

What amazes me is people are not really aware of the threat this presents to peace, if Team 2 are not willing to accept the loss, this could be the start of a wider and very dangerous conflict, NATO vs Russia for example. I don't give this a high probability, it would be an insane move by the US and the EU would tell Turkey to get fucked except the UK, but there is a probability that things do end up getting out of control, especially if the US can't reign in Turkey.

There is more to this on both sides, all the above doesn't bring in ISIS and other groups much, plus ignores Iraq and the Kurds as well, it's quite complicated but that's the basics on why Turkey is shelling Syrian Army positions in Northern Syria and the reason why the Syrian Army is in that location to start with. It would be worth getting a map of Syria and you can see where Aleeppo is.

Edit: Here's a map so you can see the location of the various countries and Aleppo is marked.

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[–] placoid 0 points 3 points (+3|-0) ago 

I don't want to sound conspiratorial in anyway but watch for Turkey pulling a false flag saying somewhere on the Turkish side of the border was shelled to give them a pretext to invade Syria, this could then involved NATO as well. Things are getting very desperate for Team 2 currently as they are about to lose.

Foreign Policy Journal reported on Turkey's use of false flags, including the sarin gas attack in Ghouta.

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[–] klongtoey 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

...and a huge car bomb in ankara happened, could this be the false flag? already being blamed on the kurds.

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[–] Flying_Mushroom 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

Thanks. I follow this from the start, I was just baffled how Turkey is allowed to shell another country without declaring war or some shit.

Good recap nevertheless, I agree with everything...

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[–] scvoon 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

You are amazing /user/rob_white. A huge thank you for posting this summary for those of us not following or just not understanding wtf is going on in Syria.

Can I have you permission to cross-post this, or can you please cross-post this yourself?