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[–] 1rash 0 points 16 points (+16|-0) ago 

Turkey is the craziest country in the region right now. It's like Russian Roulette is fun for them.

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[–] Moosh_Banger 0 points 2 points (+2|-0) ago 

There are 2 ways of looking at the situation.

A) Erdogan has gone completely insane.

B) Erdogan has been given a green light by the US to provoke the situation with a guarantee that NATO has his back.

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[–] Flying_Mushroom 0 points 12 points (+12|-0) ago 

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Saturday the shelling had taken place under "the rules of engagement against forces that represented a threat in Azaz and the surrounding area".

So how am I supposed to understand it?

All I get from this is that Turkey is shelling its neighboring country and its armies that fight against ISIS. WTF is happening there and how is this even allowed under international law?

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[–] dbag2070 0 points 17 points (+17|-0) ago 

US Allies. international law doesn't apply.

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[–] rob_white 0 points 14 points (+14|-0) ago  (edited ago)

WTF is happening there

It's complicated and needs more than a few paragraphs but I will outline the basics of why they are doing this. Not sure how much you know but we have two sides.

  1. Assad & Russia, with Iran

  2. Turkey, Saudi and the US.

Ignore ISIS for now, they are mainly a great excuse for both parties at this stage, ISIS are a proxy army, funded and armed by Saudi, Turkey and the US, but one that is down on strength compared to what it was. It's complicated but just accept ISIS really are a minor player now despise the fear mongering that happens in the US and the EU.

Team 2 is losing influence in the Middle East to team 1, Assad is a friend of Russia and Russia has an important port in Syria called Tartus, which it does not want to lose. Of course if Assad is replaced with a Pro-Turkey, Pro-US puppet they would lose this base.

Ironically this whole issue all came about because the US was trying to remove Iranian and Russian influence in Syria, while it started quite well for the US and friends with ISIS and other anti Assad groups making major gains, it has, with the direct involvement of Russia, backfired quite badly now. It forced Russia to get involved directly or team 1 would lose, I highly suspect the US and friends expected no direct involvement of Russia and were wrong.

The largest remaining anti Assad forces left in Syria are holed up in Aleepo, Syria's largest city which they still control. What the Pro Assad forces are currently doing is encircling Aleepo with the help of Russia air support, encircling the city means there is no escape for the anit Assad forces over the border to Turkey. To complete that encirclement, the pro Assad forces needs to come fairly close to the Turkish border.

Of course Turkey are just claiming it's self defense as you would expect, despite the pro Assad forces not being in Turkey, it's just an excuse to say they feel threatened. Also they want to prompt a response, so they can claim they are attacked and use it as an excuse so Turkey can invade Syria directly, they are already massing troops on the border for this. Joining them would be a small Saudi force as well.

I don't want to sound conspiratorial in anyway but watch for Turkey pulling a false flag saying somewhere on the Turkish side of the border was shelled to give them a pretext to invade Syria, this could then involved NATO as well. Things are getting very desperate for Team 2 currently as they are about to lose.

What amazes me is people are not really aware of the threat this presents to peace, if Team 2 are not willing to accept the loss, this could be the start of a wider and very dangerous conflict, NATO vs Russia for example. I don't give this a high probability, it would be an insane move by the US and the EU would tell Turkey to get fucked except the UK, but there is a probability that things do end up getting out of control, especially if the US can't reign in Turkey.

There is more to this on both sides, all the above doesn't bring in ISIS and other groups much, plus ignores Iraq and the Kurds as well, it's quite complicated but that's the basics on why Turkey is shelling Syrian Army positions in Northern Syria and the reason why the Syrian Army is in that location to start with. It would be worth getting a map of Syria and you can see where Aleeppo is.

Edit: Here's a map so you can see the location of the various countries and Aleppo is marked.

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[–] placoid 0 points 3 points (+3|-0) ago 

I don't want to sound conspiratorial in anyway but watch for Turkey pulling a false flag saying somewhere on the Turkish side of the border was shelled to give them a pretext to invade Syria, this could then involved NATO as well. Things are getting very desperate for Team 2 currently as they are about to lose.

Foreign Policy Journal reported on Turkey's use of false flags, including the sarin gas attack in Ghouta.

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[–] klongtoey 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

...and a huge car bomb in ankara happened, could this be the false flag? already being blamed on the kurds.

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[–] Flying_Mushroom 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

Thanks. I follow this from the start, I was just baffled how Turkey is allowed to shell another country without declaring war or some shit.

Good recap nevertheless, I agree with everything...

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[–] scvoon 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

You are amazing /user/rob_white. A huge thank you for posting this summary for those of us not following or just not understanding wtf is going on in Syria.

Can I have you permission to cross-post this, or can you please cross-post this yourself?

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[–] sillymanilly 0 points 6 points (+6|-0) ago  (edited ago)

If I understand it correctly Turkey is buying isis oil and now they are attacking the Kurds. Which means the good ol USA is going to back off and watch Turkey give aid and comfort to isis. We are stupid and muslims are crazy. We need to get the fuck out of there, send them all back, and let them fight it to the end. Then do nothing but prevent the winners from ever leaving the area.

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[–] guinness2 0 points 7 points (+7|-0) ago 

We are stupid and muslims are crazy.

Have you considered that the US' last 60 years of foreign policy "oopsies" in the Muslim middle east was actually an intentional destabilization campaign to keep the Muslims fighting among themselves rather than consolidating their vast oil wealth into a new global superpower: a United terrorist States of Islam (with nukes courtesy of Pakistan)?

Then do nothing but prevent the winners from ever leaving the area.

The US' destabilization campaign has been a phenomenal success: they have poked that cage full of rabid gods so often that they've spent the last three generations tearing each other apart rather than hunting the globe in a massive pack... Renewable energy will become far cheaper than oil over the next 10-20 years which will permanently cripple the entire Muslim middle east. 400 million Muslims will wake one morning to realize they have no viable economy, industry, infrastructure, education or workforce (50% of their workforce don't work for "cultural reasons") and they have nowhere to immigrate because they will be shot on site if they try to force their way into Europe... thanks to how disgusting the current Muslim refugees are.

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[–] placoid 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago 

The West's current campaign extends back to the Ottoman Empire, with the British support of the Saudis. What could possibly go wrong with creating millions of violent, desperate people with nothing to lose?

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[–] Gabriel1074 0 points 2 points (+2|-0) ago 

They should please shield innocent civilians from the carnage.

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[–] 4275074? 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago 

Unfortunately, many of the refugees show up and force their beliefs (rape, murder) on the countries that have welcomed them. I've no problem taking in people who need protected... but only for as long as is absolutely necessary, and then returned immediately. But, start some shit like the current situations, and then all of you get the fuck out, by force if necessary.

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[–] acheron2012 0 points 1 points (+1|-0) ago  (edited ago)

The Russians need to give the Kurds the BM-30 rockets that were so effective in Ukraine. Long range artillery batteries make a soft target for mobile missile systems on the modern battlefield.

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[–] Moosh_Banger 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago 

Someone needs to put that piece of human excrement Erdogan back in his padded cage before he sets fire to the globe.

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[–] 4275010? 0 points 0 points (+0|-0) ago 

Here is a nice live map of the region, for those of you playing at home.