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[–] Goater ago 

There is an argument to be made that the chance of us being the first sentient physical creatures is infinitesimally small, due to if we can conceptualize and even crudely create a simulation now, then it's fathomable that a realistic one is not too far off.

Then from there, that simulation could also have it's own simulation and so on, kind of like that Rick and Morty episode about the battery that fuels his ship.

At the end of the day I always default to 50/50 that we are. If absolutely no evidence either way, makes it a split possibility no matter how unlikely either scenario.