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[–] 26721659? ago  (edited ago)

Wrong.

Days: 342

This count of days is way too high. CDC website says:

Week ending 2/1/2020 to 12/5/2020.*

Look at a 2020 calendar and count the days. There are 25 days in January missing (Jan 1 thru 25) and 26 days in December missing (Dec 6 thru 31). That's a total of 51 days out of the year missing. Instead of using 342, it should have been 315 (because 366 - 51 = 315).

Now that the denominator has been debunked, let's see what the deaths per day is...

2,685,404 ÷ 315 = 8,525. Compared to 2018's 7,779, this means that 746 additional people are dying per day. That's about 22,756 additional deaths per month. In other words, daily deaths have increased by about 9.6% compared to 2018. This is way higher than, for example 2018 to 2019, or 2017 to 2018. Also worth noting: 2018 had a severe flu season that overwhelmed ICU capacity.

I'm glad that this Twitter user at least tried to compare apples to apples. Another user here was flat out belligerent when they were called out for comparing 10 months of deaths to 12 (without even attempting to adjust for the different time periods).

Another couple things to keep in mind about 2020 death estimates:

1. Data for the recent past (especially 2 months) is incomplete, per CDC disclaimer. There's more all-cause deaths that haven't yet been tabulated.

2. January and December tend to be deadly months (flu season, bad weather / driving conditions, depression, etc).

I expect the 2020 numbers to get worse (and be fairly settled by March 2021).