When news of COVID-19 first started circulating around the interwebs I took a pretty pessimistic/cautious approach and was supportive of masks and distancing. However, as this year progressed and more and more data started to build up, I like many of you, started to question what the hell are we still doing this for. So, I was asked yesterday to share some of my analysis so people can hep spread the word.
Here are the links and explanation to follow:
Comparison of nations with mask mandates and not: https://files.catbox.moe/hcfk4v.png
Comparison of new cases Mask vs No Mask: https://files.catbox.moe/ck3g5b.jpg
Estimated Infection Counts and Fatality Rate for the Unites States: https://files.catbox.moe/jchjcv.png
All data was compiled from CDC, WHO, statista.com and Johns Hopkins University/Worldometer.
Explanation of mask comparisons:
The most stark comparison in this graphic is Sweden vs Spain. You can verify the infection data on worldometer select the Europe tab, then click deaths/1M pop to sort. Select Spain for country specific charts (ranked 4) then scroll down for the "daily new cases" chart. Next, go back and do the same for Sweden (ranked 13) note the similar pattern in growth of case counts despite the drastic difference in mask use. This comparison tracks across pretty much all western nations with developed health reporting, masks or not.
Estimated COVID-19 infection count and fatality rate:
Here I parsed and averaged out the data from the CDC's national 10 lab seroprevalence study which looked for COVID-19 antibodies in lab samples sent for COVID-19 screening. This covers multiple demographic and population density controls across 10 difference regions around the country. According to the CDC, these rates are considered conservative as many asymptomatic persons won't have detectable levels of antibodies in their blood.
I came up with an average 7.16x infections compared to confirmed cases. As of today that comes out to an estimated 103 million americans, or nearly 1 out of every 3 people in the United States having already been infected. When you calculate the percentage of estimated infections against reported COVID-19 deaths you get a fatality rate of 0.28%.
Next, we calculate an estimated fatality rate using CDC data from the 2017-2018 flu data from here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm#:~:text=CDC%20estimates%20that%20influenza%20was,severe%20seasonal%20influenza%20can%20be.
45 million estimated cases
61 thousand deaths
0.14% fatality rate
Some will argue that this shows that covid is twice as deadly as the flu, which is correct, but ask them, if they ever considered the flu to be remotely close to an existential public health threat in the first place. Why should they fear something that is only a fractionally small percentage more deadly then?
Edit:
Conclusions:
Masks are statistically ineffective at controlling the spread of COVID-19 and therefore state mandated mask wearing is unwarranted and should not be a supported measure.
COVID-19 is little more dangerous than the influenza virus, therefore an experimental and rushed vaccine and other public health controls are unnecessary as we rapidly approach infection levels which will equate to a state of "Herd Immunity" which will control infection rates naturally before said vaccine would be widely available to the public anyway.
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[–] 26688130? 0 points 1 point 1 point (+1|-0) ago
Thanks for posting this! Very concise and good ammunition to use when discussing with our 'mis-informed' friends. The data is compelling.
[–] 26689387? [S] ago
Spreading the information is the only way to raise awareness! Please use this as much as you can.