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[–] 14863695? 0 points 1 point (+1|-0) ago 

The remaining half of the country has some very low population red states, some medium population purple states, and some high population solid blue states. The House representative count is based on population.

Plus, look at the races - the ones that are most contentious mainly have Republican incumbents. The Dems only have to win a small number of the races that poll close to flip the house. Repubs have to win a larger number.