You are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the comments →

0
1

[–] Joe_McCarthy [S] 0 points 1 point (+1|-0) ago 

The jihadists are a spent force. They're strictly playing defense in the face of a rejuvenated Assad backed by Russian air power and Iranian and Hezbollah militias. As of now HST controls about 60% of Idlib but refuses to cooperate with the 70,000 or so Turkish backed fighters. They're fighting among themselves.

0
0

[–] 1Iron_Curtain ago 

The last I heard is Al-Qaida controlled most of the province and pushed out the Turkish backed Salafist faction out of a good majority of the region. Its certainly is a cluster fuck, as that whole area has been from the beginning.

This is Turkey's legacy in the Syrian Civil War. The FSA is a terrorist group. They tried to abduct those ABC news reporters. Then you have Qatar and the Saudis into the area. Its one major nuke waiting to go off.

Why would Tahir-Al-Sham want to cooperate with the Turks and how would that be a good thing? They don't want to cooperate frankly because they don't consider the Turkish factions radical enough and want to take over the country. They are not going to soften up either. They have also whipped their behinds and the Turkish factions will have to decide whether to flee back into Turkey or essentially become an integral part of Tahir-Al-Sham.

I am betting for a number of reasons and once they get pressured into a grinder they will join with Tahir-Al-Sham like good Turks and it will give Al-Nusra the face of "de-radicalizing." This is when the West steps in and things get crazy. It has all the potential to go doomsday. Also, Al-Nusra is probably one of the most capable guerrilla fighting units in probably the 20th/21st century.

Russia is going to absolutely flatten that part of Syria and that is what is going to pull North America into the whole situation. To be honest cluster bombing would not even do Al-Nusra in because they are very decentralized in their fighting organization and very versatile and mobile and because Idilib is countryside and they can spread out easily. Expect the gas machine to roll out.

The fighting among themselves is only partially true and points to how radicalized the constituencies are in fact, but Washington will see it as an excuse to intervene. They are not playing on the defense per se, although they are in that situation, at least in the majority of cases, and if they could they want to take Aleppo, which would be a crucial blow to Assad. They want to go on the offensive the first opportunity they get and the whole they are poor men on the defense(using boys as human shields) is just sort of kind like saying well look at those poor Jihadis, look at unjust Assad is, let's help them out and topple Assad.

Its the same kind of logic that is used to prop up the left and legitimize the "diversification" of North America. These people advising and formulating the different pre-blue prints for the foreign policy and pushing those with Warhawk tendencies into considering intervention are the LGBT type that would like nothing better than to see Jihadis raping Assad's children and family and then slicing their heads off. Its Bolshevik at its finest.

The left considers it "social justice," moderates consider it a progress in diplomacy, the right considers stabilizing, and I consider it promoting the ways of third-world savagery.

Sorry for the long response, its that your statements are simple/concise, yet pretty complex and there is a lot to unravel.

1
0

[–] Joe_McCarthy [S] 1 point 0 points (+1|-1) ago  (edited ago)

The essence here is that the jihadists are no threat to drive migrant flow significantly. Certainly not imminently. They're cornered in one province car bombing and kidnapping each other. In such a case there is the matter of priority. Russia is building up in the Mediterranean to deter a US response to chemical weapons use. Those weapons will drive out civilians. One doesn't have to like this former al Qaeda affiliate to see that the threat to drive migrant flow does not presently stem from them. And it would take some pretty crippling airstrikes by the US to weaken Assad sufficiently to where the jihadists could seriously go on the offensive again. Such strikes are unlikely. Maybe mostly because of the current Russian presence off the coast.

So again where the migrant driving threat comes from is obvious.