Once again, the elections are drawing to a close.
The Top Three Candidates are:
Martine Aubrey, Current President of France and leader of the Parti socialiste.
Nicolas Sarkozy, Former President of France and Leader of Les Républicains
Marine le Pen, Leader of the Front national.
The political debates showed that:
- 30% of the population are likely to vote for the Socialist Party.
- 15% of the population are likely to vote for the Nationalist Party.
- 28% of the population are likely to vote for the Republican party.
- 27% of the population is unaccounted for. This may be due to people not watching the debates, or possibly just not having made up their mind yet.
[M]In reality it's due to wanting to put variance into the rolls
Rolls:
10x D100
1-500 = Martine Aubrey is re-elected for one more term and with her the socialist party.
501-650 = The Nationalist Party, with their leader Marine Le Pen is elected President of France.
651-1000 = The Republican Party rule France.
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[–] jidlaph ago (edited ago)
Uhhh... just so you know, the more dice you roll, the less varied the result will be.
It's like flipping a coin many times. You can easily flip a coin three times and get heads each time, but getting all heads is harder if you flip the coin 10 times.
Now imagine that coin is a d2: heads is 1 and tails is 2. The more times you flip a coin, the more likely it is that your total will be somewhere close to 1.5, because roughly half the coinflips will be 1, and the other half will be 2. The chance of rolling 10 1's is tiny: 0.1% chance. Likewise, the chance of rolling all 2's is also 0.1%. Meanwhile, the chance of getting 14, 15, or 16 on 10d2 is ~64%.
tl;dr:
Socialist Party had a ~53% chance, Nationalist Party had ~41% chance, and Republican Party had ~6% chance
[–] Alybad [S] ago
oh. I clearly no nothing about statistics :P