Archived How disease with 1% fatality rate can shut down a country (i.kym-cdn.com)
submitted ago by killer7
Posted by: killer7
Posting time: 3 months ago on
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Archived on: 12/16/2020 10:00:00 AM
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4 upvotes, 7 downvotes (36% upvoted it)
Archived How disease with 1% fatality rate can shut down a country (i.kym-cdn.com)
submitted ago by killer7
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[–] Gumbatron 0 points 1 point 1 point (+1|-0) ago
Assuming a 1% IFR and 100% infection rate is absurd. With targeted testing you might get a 1% CFR, but that doesn't translate to the wider population and IFR is not CFR. Lots of people who have had it never got tested, because they never got sick, The actual IFR is likely closer to 0.1% or even lower, assuming that about 80% of the population will "get" the infection, that would give you about 265k deaths. US is currently at ~200k, so most of the way through it. All your other figures are adjusted similarly. Not a pleasant scenario, but certainly not any sort of doomsday scenario.
As it progresses, there will be more infections but many fewer deaths. This is due to the virus weakening over time (as most infectious diseases do) and due to those particularly vulnerable to the disease having already died and due to the medical industry learning how best to treat the disease (i.e. don't shove a tube down peoples throats unless it is absolutely necessary). There may be spikes in deaths where pockets of previously unaffected vulnerable people encounter the disease, such as if it gets into nursing homes that were successfully isolating previously.
You might disagree, but time will tell I suppose. The death toll is not likely to be much different depending on whether there is a strict lockdown or not, the only difference is how long it takes and whether the economy and mental health of the remaining population are destroyed in the process.
[–] Murphman64 0 points 1 point 1 point (+1|-0) ago
its easy with a jesuit puppet like trump. so many drank the koolaid and are lost now. He is not saving the country. he has ended it officially. It belongs to (((them)))...its always belonged to (((them))).
[–] Heebro ago
no u