Posted this on Reddit, was not well received there because of an idiotic top 30 players comment by me, but I have seen the error in my ways, but thought you guys would like it.
Personally for me it is a long list but Mike Evans, CJ Anderson, OBJ, McCoy, Alshon Jeffery, and Jimmy Graham.
I hate Evans this year because the Bucs offense is still fucking trash even with Jameis as their QB. They've got no line and Vjax could potentially take targets away from him. He also is hyped like OBJ and CJ because he played well in the final 6 games of the season on and off. He had a great stretch weeks 9-11 posting at least 125 yards and 1 TD in those games. But that was against ATL, with no pass rush, WAS, with no secondary or pass rush, and CLE who didn't really have much outside of a secondary last season. After that he had games where he'd put up less than 50 yards, but would be saved by a TD or two and that's a huge flag for me. He didn't break 50 yards or 5 catches weeks 12-16, but was saved by a TD. I don't want that inconsistency from a guy I'm drafting to be my starter.
OBJ because well hes going above Julio, Jordy, AJ, Thomas, and Megatron, guys who have shown they can produce, while OBJ did well for 10 games last season against some pretty poor defenses. He put up his amazing numbers against DAL, a horrid secondary, WSH, just trash almost all over on defense, IND, no pass rush, TEN, one of the worst defenses in the league, PHI, who started Bradley Fletcher, and STL, with a pretty horrible secondary. Yes he did put up good numbers against SEA and SF (108 vs SEA and 93 against SF), very good defenses. But still, that's only two games, and I'm not drafting him that high in the first or second round based off of that sample size. People have him way too hyped up for me to take him above the guys I mentioned above, he did well against some shitty defenses but people don't see that, they just see his stat line and assume he'll do it again. There is basically no chance he outperforms his ADP at all, he'll most likely go way below it so why should I take that risk on him in the second?
CJ Anderson I understand the hype for to a certain extent, and that extent is Peyton Manning and Gary Kubiak. Peyton makes it so the defenses will not stack the box against him no matter what. And Kubiak is notorious for his run blocking schemes that turned no name RBs into the leagues best. That is a very good reason for you to take him in the second round, BUT you're also drafting a guy based on 6 games where he did well. Let's look at the games where he was a starter. He had great games against MIA and KC. Putting up 170 yards and a TD in each. MIA just completely shit the bed on defense to end the season and KC is the same team who let Lativius Murray put up a career game in less than a quarter of football. Against BUF, Anderson went for 58 yards on 21 carries, which is Trent Richardson numbers, but was saved by 3 TDs. STL was a similar story, Peyton played like ass and CJ put up 9 carries for 29 yards. Week 10 in Oakland, he went for 90 yards and a TD, but that's against that shit show of a defense that most people can't name 5 starters on. Against SD and CIN, he went for 80 yards in each but only had a TD against CIN. Now CIN and SD did have alright defenses at all last season against the run, but Anderson still put up a 2.9 YPC avg in SD and 4.61 in CIN. CJ fluctuated quite a bit each game, being saved by a TD or three in many games (BUF OAK CIN). Add that to the fact that he's in a stacked backfield with Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman and even Javon Thompson, and the fact he has an injury history, I just can't take him as my RB1 in round 1-3. Everyone in that backfield has had success, and if Anderson goes down then you're losing the guy you picked as your RB1, because chances are Ball or Hillman may take the job from him and find success with Kubiak and Peyton.
Lesean McCoy because it's just a huge question mark. He did shitty last season in PHI with an OK line to start the season posting horrible YPC against only ok defenses, but he was still getting a lot of carries. Twice he put up less than 25 yards in the first two weeks against SF and WSH(lol). Now he's on Buffalo with a worse line and worse offense. No longer does he have Chip Kelly, the offensive mastermind, but Rex Ryan, the guy who can't make an offense work no matter what. Rex loves to pound the rock, but as we saw last season even if McCoy gets the carries there's no guarantee he does well. Don't forget that the defense is gonna stack the box all day against their starting QB whoever it is. The only thing going for McCoy is that he'll get carries and (if you're superstitious) he will have a great year like he always does after a shitty one. I can't really take McCoy at all this year because he's probably not gonna outperform his ADP, either below or wayyyy below.
I don't like Alshon this year at all too much either. This guy didn't really put up numbers last year to make me draft him in the 3rd round. Chicago is just a complete mess all over, huge question marks every where for me. We've got a completely new coach with a completely different offense, and Jay Cutler at QB which no one knows if he's gonna be Peyton Manning or Geno Smith week in and week out. The HC change is a huge one for me because we honestly don't know how they're are gonna use him. I believe he will be used like Fox used Smith in CAR but we really don't know, but with the guys being taken around him we have a pretty good idea. Nelson, Cobb, Green, and Hilton all have a similar ADP and we know how they're gonna be used. Cutler is a problem because is he Jekyll or his he Hyde this week? WRs need a consistent QB week in and week out if we don't want them laying eggs all over eg Vjax and Djax. Just too many questions surrounding the Bears offense for me to draft Jeffery this season, when I can get a consistent RB1 or WR2 at the same ADP.
Jimmy Graham is another huge question mark this year. Got a mid 20s ADP, but what is that Seattle offense gonna do to get him the ball? I know this sub loves Graham, but I honestly don't like him this year. We've seen teams game plan to stop him and it works, even with Brees throwing him the ball, teams have shut him down multiple times each season, and that's a problem for a guy I'm taking over a RB2 or WR2. And is Graham even gonna be useful for the Seahawks? They love to pound the rock but Graham can't block for shit. What I'm worried about is that he's the only option Russell has in the passing game so I could see him getting doubled and shut down very often. I know this sub loves him because he's a 'red zone target', but that is about the only sure thing going for him on the Seahawks. He's got the potential to put up 10 TDs this season, but that's not enough for a guy going in the mid 20s every draft if he doesn't get many yards. Graham also has an injury history, where he always seems to have injuries hindering his performance and causing him to be used as a decoy throughout the game. I just can't draft this guy over Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris, Deandre Hopkins, and other guys going around him. I'll let other guys deal with the questions that surround him in Seattle.
But what do you guys think? I'll try to add some more guys as I think of them.
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[–] sLnTsRvC ago
I get what your saying and I would for sure take all those other WRs before him. Since he's not top 5 yet, where would you put him?