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What is this?
These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers.
What are the calculations based on?
I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on this article. Auction values are calculated using this method.
What's new this year?
I learned how to use macros, so my personal workload is dramatically reduced. Previously I had to manually add projections, now Excel does it for me. Progress! On the sheet side I've tweaked a few things. Specifically I added the team, changed tiers to a shading system (odd tiers are gray, even tiers are white), changed ADP to show round and pick, and added performance from last year. I also removed relative rank as I feel the historical data is more useful. I also added some schedule info for the top ranked D/STs and a helpful chart for counting bye weeks.
What do the columns mean?
Player Name (Depth): The name of the player, and in the case of the RB and WR columns where they are in the depth chart according to Gridiron Experts.
TM/BW: The player's team and bye week.
ADP: The player's ADP based on an average from FantasyPros. The format is the round the player is taken in and then the draft pick in that round.
#/#/P: This is how the player did last year for a given position each week. The first two numbers represent a weekly rank in a position (0.5 means the top 50% of a position, typically used for 1 position slots such as QB and TE). P stands for played; the number of weeks the player actually played assuming a 16 week season. For example in the 12 team, 0PPR, 2RB sheet the column would be 1/2/P and Jamaal Charles has the numbers 8/9/14. That means that in 2014 using that scoring and roster setting Jamaal Charles was a RB1 a total of 8 times, equal to or better than a RB2 a total of 9 times (including the RB1 weeks), and played a total of 14 games.
VAL: Player value. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar).
SDV: Standard deviation. This is the standard deviation of the projections used to establish the player value. Look at this as an indicator of the uncertainty of a player's projection; the greater the standard deviation the less cohesive the projections are on player value.
PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another.
$: Auction value assuming a $200 budget. If your budget is different just multiple everything that isn't $1 by the difference in price (so if your budget is $400 then multiple everything by 2).
$ DV: The standard deviation of the player's projections translated to a dollar amount using the same PTS:$ ratio that was applied to the auction values.
What are tiers?
Tiers are established by looking at players whose average projected value is within one standard deviation of the top player in a tier. Projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are stacked within the same tier should be considered roughly comparable in value.
Will you share the original data file?
Where are the 2QB leagues?
In the sheet with the associated position and scoring rules. So if your league is a 12 team 2QB/2RB/2WR/1FLX auction league with 6 PaTD then open up the 2RB2WR1FLX 6 PaTD Auction sheet.
Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3WR/2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD?
Yes. Click on the custom request link above and I'll do my best to get the sheet done for you.
This is awesome! These sheets help me win my league last year, and you deserve a tip! How can I throw money at you?
I run a fantasy football charity league called Cheating4Charity that raised $3496 over the last two years. Over 10% of the proceeds were from generous Redditors giving me tips as a way of saying thanks for the sheets. I'm doing it again this year. If you want to donate, click on the Cheating4Charity link and follow the instructions. Please specify Team 1 so that my team gets the money. This year I'm raising funds for Doctor's without Borders.
Will you do IDP?
Eventually. It requires a lot of work, but it's on my to-do list.
What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most?
ADP is used to determine where a player is typically going and whether or not he's over/under drafted at that position relative to other players with similar values. The real meat of the sheet is value, tier, and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value, and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. Standard deviation is important here to get a sense of how much value overlaps; a difference of a few tenths of a point isn't significant enough to matter. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on.
The historical numbers are helpful for figuring out how a player did last year, and whether or not you're looking at a player with a high floor or a low ceiling. Obviously this is a purely historical perspective, so drafters should be wary of players who might have changed teams or who have either gained or lost competition. I find it particularly useful for quarterbacks.
Positional scarcity is the big one. That shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. At that point you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill. For example Gronk is projected to take up 1/4 of the value of all tight ends.
Draft Example 1
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