IOTL the Confederate (Confederado) element in Brazil was unique, but going into the future it doesn't look like it was significant enough to remain viable in preserving it's heritage.
What if it had been different? What if the Reconstruction had been more radical, causing more Confederates to seek fresh starts in Brazil?
Many Italians settled in Brazil in the late 19th Century, but this tapped off abruptly when Italy ended subsidized immigration to Brazil in 1902. Indeed, the Italians press documented the bad conditions, making the place an unappealing destination, so immigration further tapered off.
How to get more Italians to Brazil?
Say the United States adopted a Nordicist immigration policy earlier than the Immigration Act of 1924, barring many Italians from entering.
IOTL the abrupt transition from monarchy to republic in Brazil caused much instability, however much bloodshed and economic hardship could've been avoided had the monarchy survived. So in this alternate universe Brazil remains a stable constitutional monarchy attractive to the Italian immigrants.
The combination of stability in Brazil, continued subsidies, and being barred from entering the US is bound to make Brazil a much appealing destination for the Italians.
How much stronger might the Italian element be?
What do you think?