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[–] heygeorge ago 

no medical and/or mathematical experts who predicted... ...since January

In January, there wasn’t even a proper established R0 based on anything solid.
It’s stupid to assume that models introduced in January (and since demonstrated to be inaccurate due to very limited data) are the sole arbiter of what the actual results will be like.

As to your further detailed analysis, and ‘experts’ have publicly stated this numerous times, the response of Americans (and particularly the New York metro area) was very unanticipated. The most optimistic models did not account for the level of compliance achieved by citizens following stay at home orders.

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[–] septenary [S] ago 

As of today, the CDC is now saying that they believe there were 10x more Americans infected than previously believed. That number is still much lower than the actual number, but perhaps you will be more willing to listen to an "official" source.

They are now saying 20 million+ have been infected rather than the previously reported 2 million, but the real number in terms of exposure is probably closer to 200 million.