[–] 1Iron_Curtain ago
That is the E.U.'s problem for being so negligent and permissive of Jihadists entering their country. They are also responsible for fueling the situation in Syria. Its might not be an imminent threat of pushing a massive refugee crisis and it would not exactly work quickly.
It would be a slow process. It would lead to the eruption of ISIS in the "moderate" rebel pocket near Jordan. Eventually, Al-Nusra will seize the upper hand at some point in the province and control the main strategic points. The only think the Turkish backed rebels have is numbers and that is it and the only reason Al-Nusra has not pushed them out.
I bet a lot of the "kidnapping" is people from the Turkish backed rebels joining Al-Nusra because they know their cause is lost. Of course, Assad has put them in a bad position trying to protect his country and this will lead them to radicalize. This is not Assad's fault. Its a Western problem.
There are not many civilians left in Idlib, a lot of them have already fled into Turkey. Of course, Russia has its own games it is playing and flexing their muscles on the Mediterranean like Hitler flexed his military muscle by sending the Luftwaffe to fight into the Spanish Civil War. Its a ground for a larger project which is one of the reasons the West justifies intervention, but its used as a non-sequitur. The real thing they want is radicalization of Syria and to put Israel in a position where it can justify taking over the Golan Heights.
I don't know if John Bolton is that crazy to actually get involved, but I would not doubt that possibility. He currently believes that with the loss of Turkey's alliance with North America that N.A.T.O. needs to flex its muscles. That is what at play here(it will be more than North America involving itself). Turkey might try to seize its part of the pie, but ultimately the main force that will rise to power once again is ISIS. It would not taking crippling airstrikes to take out Assad. All it would take is airstrikes on main port cities along the coast and some heavy duty bombing of Aleppo and the Idilb region.
You know you might be right. When ISIS rises again a lot of Syrians will not be able to flee and they will become subjects and forced to convert or die. That includes members of the Sunni community. I know it sounds extreme, but this is one of those situations where it could tip in that direction. They don't like a re-empowered Assad.
They resent the Russian presence, even though Russia saved the country from becoming ISIS dumping ground. I guess a problem that is closer to home is if we do intervene does it lead to a short flash war with Russia.
I really doubt this to be exact, because we know we can prevent this by bringing N.A.T.O. into the situation, which is exactly what they want to do. What is Russia going to do? Well, certainly its going to stall and sort of panic. They'll try to hold their grounds on the defensive and then they will not be able to do anything once they have to risk fighting N.A.T.O.
They'll be enraged and there is only one thing they would do and that is turn Turkey into their bitch as retribution and to put pressures on N.A.T.O.'s system(not really this because of our recent relationship with Turkey), but rather to put pressures on Europe and to step up their expansionist efforts in Eastern Europe. Imagine that we could get a far worse refugee crisis and at best just an angry Russia revving up their blitzkrieg in Eastern Europe.
The neocon Warhawks are so washed up and need to get with the times. The migrant driving threat is not Assad; its Turkey and the E.U.