If Hitler hadn't attacked the Soviet Union, Stalin probably would've attacked him. Everybody thinks Hitler was crazy for attacking the Soviet Union, really it was a question of who was going to strike first.
The USSR invaded Finland in 1940 and only won a limited victory after a bitter struggle and heavy losses. In 1941 the Soviets were in no condition to attack Germany. The Germans had the opportunity to destroy the British army in 1940 in the French campaign, and foolishly let them get away. Even so, they could have won the war in the west in 1941, either by direct cross-channel invasion or by crushing the British in the Mediterranean.
Occupying Spain (with or without Franco's consent) and Gibraltar, Malta, and taking the Middle East through Turkey and Egypt, would have cut off the British from the remains of their overseas empire. It would also have neutralized the Mediterranean, allowing the German and Italian navies to co-operate in the Atlantic. Iraq and Iran were in revolt against the British and could easily have been taken, providing an alternative source of oil. Even IRL, the British were totally beaten and exhausted by mid-1941. A full offensive would have forced them to sue for peace. Then, secure in the west, Germany would have been in a much better position to fight the USSR in 1942.
Germany absolutely could not conduct Sea Lion, as you suggested. They could not gain air superiority even for a brief, tactical period. They also could not provide adequate naval coverage for a cross-channel invasion. In addition, Germany possessed only an inadequate number of river barges that werent truly suitable for an amphibious landing due to the high risk of swamping (even the wake from a British destroyer would sink them, nevermind actual weapons).
You are underestimating the Soviets. If they struck before Hitler had all his stuff on the borders they could've taken out the Romanian oilfields and thrown the whole thing into disarray.
[–] HarlandKornfeld14 0 points 2 points 2 points (+2|-0) ago
If Hitler hadn't attacked the Soviet Union, Stalin probably would've attacked him. Everybody thinks Hitler was crazy for attacking the Soviet Union, really it was a question of who was going to strike first.
[–] DukeofAnarchy 0 points 1 point 1 point (+1|-0) ago
The USSR invaded Finland in 1940 and only won a limited victory after a bitter struggle and heavy losses. In 1941 the Soviets were in no condition to attack Germany. The Germans had the opportunity to destroy the British army in 1940 in the French campaign, and foolishly let them get away. Even so, they could have won the war in the west in 1941, either by direct cross-channel invasion or by crushing the British in the Mediterranean.
Occupying Spain (with or without Franco's consent) and Gibraltar, Malta, and taking the Middle East through Turkey and Egypt, would have cut off the British from the remains of their overseas empire. It would also have neutralized the Mediterranean, allowing the German and Italian navies to co-operate in the Atlantic. Iraq and Iran were in revolt against the British and could easily have been taken, providing an alternative source of oil. Even IRL, the British were totally beaten and exhausted by mid-1941. A full offensive would have forced them to sue for peace. Then, secure in the west, Germany would have been in a much better position to fight the USSR in 1942.
[–] daskapitalist ago
Germany absolutely could not conduct Sea Lion, as you suggested. They could not gain air superiority even for a brief, tactical period. They also could not provide adequate naval coverage for a cross-channel invasion. In addition, Germany possessed only an inadequate number of river barges that werent truly suitable for an amphibious landing due to the high risk of swamping (even the wake from a British destroyer would sink them, nevermind actual weapons).
[–] HarlandKornfeld14 ago
You are underestimating the Soviets. If they struck before Hitler had all his stuff on the borders they could've taken out the Romanian oilfields and thrown the whole thing into disarray.
[–] Some_Guy_from_RI [S] ago
Very true.