Well, no. There is data. How many serial killers there are. How many people do you meet in a lifetime. Do some maths that I'm too lazy to figure out, and there you go.
[–]lodro0 points
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(edited ago)
Yeah. My back-of-a-napkin calculation came up with a big fat nope.
Example:
Average lifespan of ~7 decades
Average 20 U.S. serial killers emerge per year. Assume all are dead or in prison in exactly 10 years, and that they're on average 30 years old when they start (giving you 40 years to meet them).
This gives about 800 current or future serial killers available in the general population at any given time for you to meet.
US population ~325,000,000
New people met daily on average: 2
New people met per lifespan less early childhood: ~40,000
Odds that any particular person you meet is a current or future serial killer: 800 / 325,000,000 = .0000025 = .00025%.
Probability you will meet a current or future serial killer in your lifetime: ~9%.
Every time I had to make an assumption - several dozen times - I made the most generous, serial-killer-meeting-promoting assumption that I reasonably could. For example, I assume that you meet newborn babies at the same rate you meet 20-somethings and so on. I assume that serial killers meet strangers at the same rate as average people. Etc.
And the best I could get was about 9%, which is probably unrealistically high.
[–] lodro ago (edited ago)
Yeah. My back-of-a-napkin calculation came up with a big fat nope.
Example:
Average lifespan of ~7 decades
Average 20 U.S. serial killers emerge per year. Assume all are dead or in prison in exactly 10 years, and that they're on average 30 years old when they start (giving you 40 years to meet them).
This gives about 800 current or future serial killers available in the general population at any given time for you to meet.
US population ~325,000,000
New people met daily on average: 2
New people met per lifespan less early childhood: ~40,000
Odds that any particular person you meet is a current or future serial killer: 800 / 325,000,000 = .0000025 = .00025%.
Probability you will meet a current or future serial killer in your lifetime: ~9%.
Every time I had to make an assumption - several dozen times - I made the most generous, serial-killer-meeting-promoting assumption that I reasonably could. For example, I assume that you meet newborn babies at the same rate you meet 20-somethings and so on. I assume that serial killers meet strangers at the same rate as average people. Etc.
And the best I could get was about 9%, which is probably unrealistically high.
[–] pm_me_firearms ago
Ok, thanks for doing the math for me. I thought the percentage would be higher, but still.