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[–] pcdude 0 points 2 points (+2|-0) ago 

I expect they will exit. As for the global economy, we can expect a slow falling series of recessions to creep up around Europe. Those waves will grow as other EU countries start pushing for the same votes. As fewer and fewer countries get stuck with the refugees that they cannot seem to shut the door to, the economic burden will start buckling economies like Germany.

Early on, I expect American and Asian markets to have reflex responses in a downward direction, but they will level out before too long. It could tip off the problems they Asian markets are trying to hide, though. This might also push the Fed to dabble in negative interest rates. They have been waiting for a good excuse for some time that would allow them to do it, without having to take the blame for it. This will not cause immediate consequences, but it will set us up for an even harder crash latter, as banks are pushed even harder.

Down the road, when some nations are buckling under refugees, some nations are coping with the bubbles they created (China) and the US economy is coping with the new president and the problems that will come to fruition after Obama, there will be nothing positive to give any of the major economies hope. This is when we will see a few recessions move into hard depressions.

I could keep theory crafting, but in short, I think the Brexit will bring down the EU house of cards. It will be hard for Britain at first, but it will get better. It will be hard for the EU and will only get worse. It will be a pinprick to US markets that will cause little more than reflex responses that are soon forgotten and it could be the first domino in the ever more frail Chinese markets.

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[–] scoopadoop 0 points 2 points (+2|-0) ago 

And what happens if they remain?

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[–] pcdude 0 points 2 points (+2|-0) ago 

The markets will continue to walk their fine line until the next event comes along. The unrest in the populations will continue to mount until they finally pop. This pop will mean that either the EU nations will leave peacefully or will erupt in unrest of the government changing nature. If revolution cannot be achieved peacefully, then it will be achieved violently.

Ultimately change is inevitable. The history of the world is a cycle of the wealthy and powerful rising to power, abusing said power and being overthrown. The rebels rebuild, flourish and some become wealthy, rise to power and the cycle repeats. With wealth comes corruption, moral decay and apathy on a national level. In the presence of these things, few people can rise to great power over the masses, by means of manipulation, government corruption and violence. In the presence of these things, tolerance for corruption and moral decay dissolves apathy and people rise up to take back the power.

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[–] MicroFaggot 0 points 1 point (+1|-0) ago 

The vote will be rigged--there's too much money to be made in selling out.

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[–] carnold03 0 points 1 point (+1|-0) ago 

The UK never needed the EU and had they not voted to join to begin with the EU would've collapsed in the 60's ago and transitioned into a more functional governance system that actually serves people, businesses, and the markets best interests.